HOT off the dais

On December 8, 2024, the world celebrated the reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris, a powerful symbol of global unity and resilience. Ravaged by a devastating fire in 2019, the iconic structure was restored with painstaking care, a testament to human collaboration and shared heritage. Leaders from across the globe gathered in a rare display of unity, transcending political and cultural divides to honour the cathedral’s rebirth. Though deeply rooted in its Christian identity, Notre-Dame’s restoration became a universal project, embraced as a symbol of cultural preservation and collective triumph.

Earlier this year, in January 2024, India witnessed the long-awaited opening of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. For millions of Hindus, the temple fulfilled a sacred aspiration spanning generations. However, its inauguration was a starkly different affair, steeped in a history of legal battles, political narratives, and communal tensions. The temple’s opening, while deeply meaningful to many, also highlighted the polarizing forces that have often shaped India’s religious landscape.

The contrasting receptions of Notre-Dame and the Ram Temple exhibit the delicate balance between preserving cultural heritage and navigating historical grievances. Central to this discussion is India’s Place of Worship Act, 1991, a landmark legislation aimed at safeguarding the religious status quo. The Act prohibits the alteration of the character of any place of worship as it stood on August 15, 1947, barring the Ayodhya site, which was exempted due to ongoing litigation at the time.

The Act was designed to prevent the eruption of communal discord by freezing religious identities in their historical status quo, essentially drawing a line under the past. By doing so, it sought to uphold India’s pluralistic ethos and protect its diverse religious communities from recurring disputes. However, as recent events and legal challenges reveal, the Act is both a solution and a source of contention, depending on one’s perspective.

For its proponents, the Place of Worship Act is a necessary legal safeguard in a nation where religious fault lines have historically led to violence. The law ensures that communities focus on coexistence and progress rather than revisiting past grievances. By providing a clear legal framework, the Act helps prevent political exploitation of sensitive issues that could destabilise the social fabric.

However, critics argue that the Act, while well-intentioned, imposes a blanket restriction that may deny justice in specific cases where communities feel their historical rights have been wronged. Recent petitions in the Supreme Court have challenged its validity, particularly in cases like the Gyanvapi Mosque in Varanasi and Krishna Janmabhoomi in Mathura, where litigants claim to have evidence of prior religious structures. For these groups, the Act represents an obstacle to correcting perceived historical injustices.

The Supreme Court has taken up these challenges, with recent hearings underscoring the complexities of balancing constitutional values with social realities. Critics argue that by freezing history, the Act ignores the evolving aspirations of communities. Supporters counter that reopening such disputes would set a dangerous precedent, potentially leading to widespread unrest and destabilisation.

The story of Notre-Dame offers a compelling counterpoint. Its restoration united people of all faiths and cultures, transforming it from a Christian landmark to a global symbol of resilience and shared heritage. Leaders from around the world came together, displaying the universal importance of cultural preservation. In contrast, the Ram Temple’s opening, though significant, was deeply tied to a divisive history. Its construction was preceded by decades of communal tension and political maneuvering, making it difficult for the temple to transcend its sectarian origins and become a unifying symbol for the nation.

The Place of Worship Act plays a pivotal role in determining how India can navigate such challenges. On the one hand, the Act is a solution, providing a legal framework to prevent religious disputes from dominating public discourse and fueling communal unrest. On the other hand, it is also perceived as a problem, as it denies the possibility of addressing historical grievances in a manner that some communities find just.

To move forward, India must adapt its approach. The Act’s core principles - ensuring peace and preserving harmony - must remain sacrosanct, but its implementation could benefit from modernisation. Setting up interfaith committees to mediate disputes, creating compensatory frameworks for aggrieved communities, and fostering dialogue could help address concerns without compromising social stability.

The judiciary must also play a proactive role. Recent hearings have shown the Supreme Court’s willingness to engage with the complexities of the Act, but decisive rulings are needed to uphold its constitutional validity while addressing specific grievances in a way that doesn’t undermine national unity.

Ultimately, the contrasting tales of Notre-Dame and Ayodhya are more than just stories about places of worship; they reflect broader societal choices. Notre-Dame’s restoration symbolized the power of unity and collective purpose, while the Ayodhya temple highlighted the challenges of navigating a deeply divided history. The Place of Worship Act, 1991, is both a safeguard and a challenge, but it remains essential to India’s vision of unity in diversity. By reaffirming its principles and evolving its practices, India can ensure that its places of worship serve as bridges of understanding rather than battlegrounds of discord.

India continues to grapple with these questions, thus it must decide whether to look back with resentment or look forward with hope. The lessons from Notre-Dame and Ayodhya offer a path: one of reconciliation, inclusivity, and shared purpose - a path that can transform religious landmarks from sources of division into symbols of unity and progress.

If the world is a stage, Indian cinema is one of its most vibrant, melodious, and dramatic acts. As we celebrate the centenary of Raj Kapoor - a man who arguably put the 'show' in showbiz for India and reflect on the Kapoor family's recent meeting with the Prime Minister, we are reminded of the role cinema plays as a vital tool in shaping India's global narrative. Indian cinema, with its kaleidoscope of emotions, music, and drama, has been a bridge between nations, connecting diverse cultures and hearts in ways that politics alone could never achieve.

The story of Indian cinema as an instrument of soft power is not new. It begins with figures like Raj Kapoor, whose films captured the imagination of audiences far beyond India's borders. Raj Kapoor, fondly known as the "Showman of Bollywood", wasn’t just a cinematic genius; he was India's unofficial cultural ambassador. His films, from Awaara to Shree 420, struck a chord far beyond Indian borders. In the Soviet Union, Kapoor was as much a household name as Lenin (albeit for very different reasons). His portrayal of the lovable underdog resonated with audiences from Moscow to Tashkent, proving that you don’t need subtitles to understand the language of dreams, struggles, and love. 

Kapoor’s melodious anthems like Mera Joota Hai Japani were not just chart-toppers; they were cultural exports that embodied the spirit of post-independence India: confident, aspirational, and unapologetically quirky. His legacy laid the groundwork for Indian cinema’s role as a bridge-builder in geopolitics. By the time Kapoor’s films reached their zenith, they weren’t just movies; they were symbols of a nation finding its voice on the global stage. At a time when official diplomatic channels were constrained, Kapoor's cinema became an informal ambassador, building goodwill and fostering a sense of shared humanity.

This legacy of cinema as a cultural bridge continued to evolve. During the era of non-alignment, India projected itself as a champion of decolonisation and solidarity with the Global South. Indian films became a cultural export to newly independent nations in Africa and Asia, where audiences found their own struggles and aspirations reflected in the stories and characters of Bollywood. The films of actors like Dilip Kumar and Nargis resonated deeply, presenting an India that was modern, resilient, and inclusive. These films often emphasised themes of social justice, equality, and community values that aligned with the aspirations of nations emerging from colonial rule.

In the Middle East, Indian cinema became a sensation. The songs and stories of Bollywood were embraced across the region, with stars like Amitabh Bachchan achieving near-divine status. In countries like Egypt and Iran, Indian films became a staple of cultural exchange, showcasing the universality of love, sacrifice, and triumph over adversity. Similarly, in Africa, the influence of Indian cinema extended beyond entertainment. It fostered a sense of kinship, often drawing parallels between the struggles depicted on screen and the lived experiences of its audiences. In countries like Nigeria and South Africa, Indian films became a medium through which communities bonded, celebrated, and engaged with a shared narrative of resilience and hope.

Even in the post-liberalisation era, as globalisation brought nations closer economically, Indian cinema adapted to new realities while retaining its cultural essence. Shah Rukh Khan emerged as a global icon, hailed as the "King of Bollywood", with fans from Berlin to Jakarta swooning over his charisma. The turn of the millennium also saw Indian films making their mark in non-traditional markets like China. Aamir Khan's Dangal and Secret Superstar resonated with Chinese audiences, showcasing themes of empowerment and familial love. These films were not just box office successes; they were moments of cultural diplomacy, creating connections in places where political relations often fluctuated.

Beyond its emotional appeal, Indian cinema has also played a practical role in strengthening international ties. Festivals like the International Film Festival of India (IFFI) have been platforms for cultural exchange, inviting global filmmakers and audiences to engage with India's rich cinematic heritage. Bollywood’s collaborations with international artists and studios have further underscored its global relevance. Co-productions, international filming locations, and the growing presence of Indian films in global award circuits, including the Oscars, reflect India’s growing cultural clout.

Indian cinema's influence also extends to soft economic power. The global popularity of Bollywood has given rise to Bollywood tourism, with fans traveling to India to experience the vibrant locales depicted on screen. This not only boosts local economies but also creates a deeper appreciation of India’s cultural diversity. Indian films often showcase the country’s traditions, cuisine, and landscapes, turning them into ambassadors of India's soft power.

The recent meeting between the Kapoor family and the Prime Minister, coinciding with the centenary of Raj Kapoor, is a testament to the enduring impact of Indian cinema in shaping India’s global identity. Raj Kapoor’s legacy serves as a metaphor for the broader narrative of how Indian culture transcends borders. The significance of this event lies not just in its nostalgia but in its reminder of how far Indian cinema has come in influencing perceptions of India across the globe.

Cinema remains a unique diplomatic tool because it communicates through emotions that are universally understood. Indian films, with their celebration of life, love, and resilience, embody values that resonate across cultures. They break down stereotypes, foster empathy, and create a narrative of India as a nation that is vibrant, inclusive, and forward-looking. The songs, dances, and larger-than-life stories are more than entertainment; they are expressions of a culture that is unafraid to dream big and share those dreams with the world.

In the 21st century, soft power has become an essential component of global leadership. Military might and economic strength may define a nation’s hard power, but it is cultural influence that wins hearts and builds trust. For India, the growing footprint of its cinema underscores its rise as a global cultural force. Bollywood is not just an industry; it is a movement that carries the ethos of a nation ready to engage with the world in meaningful ways.

As we honour 100 years of Raj Kapoor and his timeless contributions, we are reminded that the story of Indian cinema is deeply intertwined with the story of India itself. It is a journey of resilience, aspiration, and global collaboration. The centenary of Raj Kapoor is not merely a celebration of a legend; it is a reflection of Indian cinema's unparalleled ability to connect, inspire, and lead on the world stage.

In the words of Raj Kapoor, “The show must go on.” And for Indian cinema, it’s not just going on; it’s flourishing, carrying the dreams of a billion people and sharing them with the world.

The renewed “Dilli Chalo” farmers’ protest, which was scheduled for December 6, 2024, marks a significant escalation in the ongoing confrontation between farmers and the Central Government. This movement, spearheaded by groups such as the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (Non-Political) and the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, is rooted in longstanding grievances over unfulfilled promises made during the 2020-21 protests. 

Thousands of farmers, primarily from Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh (UP), have been demanding legal guarantees on Minimum Support Prices (MSP), farm debt waivers, pensions for farmers and labourers, and justice for victims of past violence, including the Lakhimpur Kheri incident of 2021. Other demands include the reinstatement of the Land Acquisition Act, 2013, and compensation for families of farmers who died during previous agitations, particularly the large farmers’ protests at Singhu, Tikri and Kundli. 

Large groups of farmers from Punjab and Haryana have gathered at border points like Shambhu and Khanauri. Farmers from UP are expected to join in substantial numbers, amplifying the scale of the march. But the key takeaway from this movement is that a lot of factions have emerged among the farm unions. It stems partly from disagreements over leadership and the direction of the protests following the 2020-21 agitation.

So, what is the current stand? 

The farmers have rejected a government proposal to guarantee MSP for select crops for five years, arguing that the offer is insufficient and excludes a vast majority of farmers. Farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal criticised the limited scope of the proposal, emphasising the need for MSP to cover all crops to ensure equitable benefits for farmers nationwide. 

About 65 percent of the country’s population lives in rural areas and 47 percent of Indians are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. But the growth of Indian agriculture has remained sluggish. 

A study by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has shown that crops not covered by MSP often face price fluctuations, making farmers vulnerable to market forces. Farmers argue that a broader MSP system would stabilise prices and ensure fair compensation for their labour.  For farmers, MSP plays a crucial role in income security. In the absence of it, farmers often sell their produce at significantly lower prices, especially in the case of perishable goods like tomatoes, cauliflower etc. The government’s procurement at MSP acts as a crucial safety net, particularly for rice and wheat, which are produced in large quantities and have stable market demand. While the MSP for wheat and rice is implemented effectively in states like Punjab and Haryana, many other states, especially in the northeast and the southern regions, struggle with procurement issues. 

Farmers are seeking MSP for 23 crops whose floor prices should be fixed at 50 percent above the comprehensive cost of production given by the father of the green revolution, M S Swaminathan.  

The Government has maintained a firm stance, resisting demands for legally guaranteed MSP while expressing openness to dialogue. It argues that such guarantees could disrupt market dynamics and lead to fiscal imbalances. Instead, it has shifted focus to long-term reforms aimed at improving the agricultural sector. These measures include restructuring the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to streamline procurement and distribution, promoting investments in post-harvest infrastructure, and expanding programmes such as the PM-Kisan Samman scheme, which provides direct financial assistance to farmers.In the Union Budget 2024-25, certain schemes have been laid down to accelerate agricultural growth and income of farmers such as issuance of Jan Samarth based Kisan Credit Cards.

Direct financial assistance is aimed for 11.8 crore farmers, under PM-Kisan Samman Yojana and crop insurance to 4 crore farmers under PM Fasal Bima Yojana. Technological interventions like the application of Nano DAP and investments in crop insurance programmes have also been emphasised. 

As per the Government and the Supreme Court, the protests are leading to economic losses and traffic snarls on the roads. According to estimates from the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI), these disruptions are resulting in daily economic losses exceeding ₹500 crore daily in northern states and impacting vegetable prices in cities like Delhi. 

The promise of doubling the agricultural income is still unmet. In 2019, the average monthly income of agricultural households in India was around ₹10,000, with nearly half of these families facing debt. Additionally, around 50% of farmers lacked access to conventional financial services. The agriculture sector, which employs about half of India's workforce, contributes less than 20% to the country's GDP.

CRISIL Market Intelligence & Analytics estimates that making MSP an act and giving MSP to farmers on all 23 crops will cost 210 billion rupees (USD $2.53 billion). Business Today India writes that MSP guarantee will cost additional Rs 10 lakh cr which is equal to infrastructure spending. This is an unclear statement because in a country like India not providing MSP will not necessarily lead to transition of labour from traditional agricultural sector to a modern industrial sector as it is provided in the Lewis's Model. 

Certainly, talks are the only means to resolve the deadlock. But, there needs to be a hastening of the process with effective remedial measures, as the cost of not doing so is going to be excruciatingly painful with serious socio-economic ramifications. 

Shaktikanta Das, who completed six years as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 10, 2024, has emerged as one of the longest-serving leaders in the institution's history. His tenure marks a transformative era, as he navigated through formidable economic turbulence, including the COVID-19 pandemic, regulatory overhauls, and challenges in the banking sector, while pursuing growth, monetary stability and financial innovation with a steady hand.

Taking the helm amidst heightened economic uncertainty in December 2018, Das succeeded Urjit Patel, stepping into the role with an unflinching resolve to stabilise the economy. When Das took office, the Indian economy faced multiple challenges, including a liquidity crunch in the non-banking financial sector, high inflation, and a fragile banking system. His administrative acumen, honed during his tenure as Finance Secretary, proved instrumental in addressing these pressing issues.

One of his early challenges was resolving the crises in Punjab & Maharashtra Cooperative Bank and Yes Bank. Under Das' leadership, the RBI facilitated their resolution, including the acquisition of PMC Bank by the Centrum Group, which established Unity Small Finance Bank. Between February and October 2019, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slashed the repo rate by a cumulative 135 basis points (bps) over five successive meetings. This calibrated intervention aimed to revitalise economic activity, addressing sluggish growth and fostering liquidity in the financial system.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic posed an unprecedented economic crisis. Between March and May 2020, the MPC cut rates by 115 bps over two meetings, providing crucial support to a beleaguered economy. The RBI introduced liquidity measures, including a six-month loan moratorium for borrowers and one-time loan restructuring schemes, ensuring financial stability during the harsh lockdowns. Another innovation during his tenure was Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (TLTROs), which provided liquidity to banks for onward lending to stressed sectors, including NBFCs and MSMEs.

Das' tenure was marked by bold regulatory initiatives. In October 2021, the RBI introduced a scale-based regulatory framework for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), stratifying them into four categories. This framework brought large NBFCs under stringent norms, aligning them with banks in terms of capital adequacy, prudential regulations, and governance standards. His reappointment in December 2021 reflected confidence in his forward-looking policies.

April 2022 witnessed the launch of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF), a novel monetary policy instrument allowing banks to park surplus liquidity with the RBI. This tool became instrumental in managing post-pandemic liquidity dynamics. Between May 2022 and February 2023, the MPC raised interest rates by a substantial 250 bps over six consecutive meetings, countering inflationary pressures. September 2022 saw the issuance of digital lending guidelines, a decisive move to regulate the fintech ecosystem, albeit triggering significant disruption in the sector. Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of banks fell significantly from 10.8% in September 2018 to 2.8% by March 2024, reflecting enhanced banking resilience.

November 2023 brought to light concerns over the burgeoning growth in unsecured retail loans. In a preemptive measure to mitigate systemic risks, the RBI raised risk weights on unsecured consumer loans, including credit cards, by 25% for banks and NBFCs. Das also refrained from granting banking licenses to large corporate houses, citing potential conflicts of interest and risks of connected lending, a stance that bolstered the integrity of the banking system.

The final year of Das' tenure epitomised the complexities of modern central banking. In April, the RBI barred Kotak Mahindra Bank from onboarding new customers via online and mobile platforms due to IT deficiencies, underscoring a zero-tolerance policy toward operational lapses. By September, India's foreign exchange reserves reached a record $704.89 billion, a testament to resilient external sector management. However, December brought a stark reminder of global headwinds as the Indian rupee plunged to an all-time low of 84.75 against the US dollar.

In his latest MPC meeting in December 2024, Das led the decision to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the eleventh straight meeting, maintaining a neutral stance to ensure inflation aligns with the target while supporting growth.

Das has been a strong proponent of digital payments and financial inclusion. Under his leadership, Unified Payments Interface (UPI) became central to India's digital economy, with monthly transactions crossing 14 billion and values exceeding ₹20 trillion by mid-2024. UPI was globalised and integrated with international payment systems. A key milestone was the launch of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), modernising India's financial infrastructure.

Under Das, the RBI transferred record surpluses to the Government, including ₹2.11 lakh crore in 2023-24 alone. Between FY19 and FY24, the RBI paid a total dividend of ₹6.61 lakh crore, providing critical fiscal support to the government during times of economic distress.

From introducing robust supervisory frameworks to fostering innovation through the RBI Innovation Hub and overseeing the withdrawal of ₹2,000 currency notes, Das's tenure has been a saga of resilience, reform, and renewal. His legacy, etched in the annals of India's economic history, serves as a touchstone for future custodians of the nation's financial stability.

Earlier last week, outgoing U.S. President Biden’s historic visit to Angola - the first by a sitting American president to the oil-rich African nation - has once again cast the spotlight on the strategic significance of the Lobito Corridor.

The Lobito Corridor, a linchpin of the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), was formally announced at the 18th G20 Summit in 2023. Spearheaded by the European Union (EU)  and the United States, this 1,300 km rail project stretches from Zambia’s resource-rich hinterlands to the port city of Lobito in western Angola. The initiative, which has garnered over $6 billion in international investments, is designed to tap into the immense mineral wealth of southern Africa - especially from Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Angola.

This corridor will primarily enable the export of critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and uranium, which are pivotal for the global energy transition. Zambia alone boasts vast reserves of copper, cobalt, gold, silver, and zinc, while the DRC, particularly the Katanga region, is rich in uranium, platinum, palladium, and cadmium, among others​. The Lobito Corridor strategically positions these landlocked nations to ship their commodities to global markets more efficiently, transforming the regional economy.

In addition to resource extraction, the corridor aims to catalyse investments in other sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, and energy. This multi-sectoral approach will provide long-term benefits, creating a diversified economic base beyond raw mineral exports. The influx of high-quality foreign investments is expected to modernise infrastructure and foster development in local industries, bolstering regional growth.

Furthermore, the project is part of a broader geopolitical chessboard. It represents the West’s attempt to counter China’s influence in Africa, particularly in sectors like mining and infrastructure. As Beijing continues to dominate with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Lobito Corridor serves as a critical counterbalance, offering African nations an alternative partnership model with the G7.

In 2024, as global demand for electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy (RE) components continues to surge, the economic importance of the Lobito Corridor becomes more pronounced. With India’s ambitious goals to ramp up its EV production and RE capacity, the steady supply of essential materials like copper and cobalt from Zambia and the DRC could help reduce its dependency on volatile markets and suppliers. Moreover, as Indian companies invest in Africa's mining and infrastructure sectors, they could forge new partnerships along the Lobito Corridor, enhancing trade connectivity between the African continent and South Asia. This would not only help India diversify its mineral import sources but also potentially lower raw material costs for its burgeoning tech and manufacturing industries, driving further economic growth. The Lobito Corridor project is hopefully set to bolster Africa’s role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, while simultaneously addressing local development needs. 

Vikrant Massey, a critically acclaimed actor, bids adieu to the spotlight, leaving us wondering: When’s the right time to hang up the boots and master the life-work juggle?

It is often said that there is no right time for anything. PhDs at 70 to startups at 5, and skydiving at 80 prove that life doesn’t follow a script, so why should retirement?

Although there are different notions as to when the word, ‘retirement’ actually came into daily use, its meaning still confuses many. Is it just about retiring to bed and sitting around? Oh no! It is much more than that. Back then, the premise of retirement was the relative inability of individuals to perform certain tasks due to physically demanding tasks. Advances in medicine have led to longer, and more vigorous lives. Therefore, for a lot of people the concept of retirement doesn’t hold much relevance now. 

Today, retirement comes with ‘Bridge Employment.’ Bridge employment refers to work undertaken by individuals during the transition between their primary career and full retirement. It often serves as a "bridge" to ease the shift from the traditional workforce to a life of complete retirement. The personal meaning attached to a career is a deciding factor for retirement. Work doesn’t mean the same thing to everyone: for some it represents a true calling, for rest, it is merely a source of income. 

The United Nations (UN) has predicted that the number of over-65s will more than double from 2021 levels by 2050. From 2000 to 2019, global life expectancy increased from 67 years to 73. And as the population ages, many countries will soon reach a point where more people are leaving the workforce than are entering it: in the UK, that point may be reached by 2029; in Brazil, by 2035; in India, by 2048; and in the US, by 2053.

Turning 60 would open a golden portal to retirement. Yet increasingly, the idea of stepping away from the workforce doesn't seem realistic in today’s times. 

Retirement age and income levels of an individual show a correlation. Higher labour income decreases the likelihood of early retirement, while greater pension entitlements increase the chances of retiring early. Private wealth or personal endowments also play an important role in early retirement. Examining different retirement paths shows that low-income households are most influenced by involuntary retirement, whereas those with middle incomes are more likely to retire voluntarily. The mixed results regarding the impact of income on early retirement are often explained by a trade-off between income and leisure, like labour supply decisions.

Macroeconomic viewpoint 

The ageing of the population is a concern from a macroeconomic viewpoint and the economists who study demographic dividend. As per such economists, early retirement is costly for the economy as a whole. Therefore, a lot of countries including India focus on pro-work policies. Generally, working is better for health and well being. 

As of 2023, India’s life expectancy is approximately 70 years, which increases post-retirement dependency. The retirement age is generally flexible, but for most employees, it is around 58-60 years. According to the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) 2020, 66% of the elderly (aged 60 and above) are partially or fully dependent on others for their financial needs. Of these, a majority rely on their children or family members. The joint family system still plays a crucial role in supporting seniors. 

Social Security and Retirement 

Now comes another pivotal question. How many FDs have you opened for post- retirement fun?

It is known that people who can save for retirement are usually in the top half of the income distribution. People in the bottom generally have less disposable income to save. In many cases, a nation’s social security system will do a decent job though private savings are often needed. Additionally, saving is not easy. Spending on the Veblen goods is always fun for the rich. In the States, Social Security’s average benefit is high but 94% of retirees take Social Security retirement benefits well before its benefit peaks, at age 60.

There’s a need for ‘longevity literacy’ and an approach to retirement that goes beyond financial security. As we reflect on the evolving idea of retirement, it becomes clear that it’s not a one-size-fits-all concept. Advances in healthcare and longer life expectancies challenge the traditional notions of stepping away from work at 60. Today, retirement is not just about financial planning but also about maintaining health, purpose, and social connection. While some may retire by choice, others may transition to bridge employment, continuing to contribute to society in different ways.

Green bonds are a type of debt instrument issued to raise funds exclusively for environmental and climate-related projects. They provide investors a dual benefit: financial returns and the opportunity to support sustainable development. In India, green bonds have been targeted to fund nine critical areas which are, renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transportation, climate change adaptation, biodiversity conservation, pollution prevention, green buildings, sustainable land use, and water and waste management systems.

In November 2024, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aimed to raise ₹5,000 crore in its latest green bond auction but could only raise ₹1,502 crore, at a yield of 6.79% interest. The remaining amount of  ₹3,498 crore devolved to primary dealers (financial institutions). 

This limited interest reflects weak demand and underscores several systemic challenges in India’s green bond market. One of the primary reasons stated are that there was no mandate for the investors to invest at a low yield, the unwillingness of the investors to pay the “greenium” (the difference in the yield between green bonds and other bonds). Unlike global markets where green bonds often trade at a slight premium due to their environmental credentials, the Indian market had a yield of 6.79%. Additionally, liquidity concerns in the secondary market and the absence of mandatory investment mandates further deterred investors.

Earlier this year in May, the RBI cancelled the 10 year green bonds auction due to insufficient bids. 

The main challenges faced in the Indian Sovereign green bonds market are the investors’ reluctance to accept lower yields, as green bonds often offer no distinct financial advantage over traditional debt instruments. Limited awareness about the environmental and financial benefits of green bonds further dampens demand, particularly in emerging markets like India. Transparency issues also persist, as weak implementation and inadequate reporting mechanisms, despite SEBI's established frameworks, undermine investor confidence. Additionally, the lack of liquidity in secondary markets makes green bonds less appealing to investors seeking flexibility. Lastly, the current market structure and design of green bonds, which predominantly target banks, fail to attract long-term institutional investors like insurance companies and pension funds, who prefer bonds with longer maturities. These factors collectively hinder the growth and acceptance of green bonds in India.

To improve the acceptance and effectiveness of green bonds in India, a multi-faceted approach is necessary. Firstly, building a sustainability-oriented business culture is essential. Drawing inspiration from Scandinavian countries like Sweden, India must integrate sustainability into corporate practices. Mandates requiring companies to prioritise green investments can help align business objectives with environmental goals. The Business Responsibility and Sustainability Reporting (BRSR) guidelines introduced by SEBI in 2021 are a positive step, encouraging businesses to transparently disclose their sustainability performance and fostering a culture of accountability.

Secondly, enhancing transparency and reporting mechanisms is critical for boosting investor confidence. India can borrow from Brazil’s successful model by developing a green bond taxonomy to clearly define eligible projects, allocation processes, and verification standards. Such a framework would ensure that funds are utilised effectively and transparently, thereby fostering trust among investors. Improved implementation and robust reporting systems can further strengthen this effort.

Focusing on municipal-level green bonds offers another avenue for growth. These bonds have the potential to fund localised climate adaptation and mitigation projects effectively. However, it is vital to build capacity at the municipal level by training officials, developing region-specific frameworks, and ensuring strong managerial capabilities. These steps would enable municipalities to access green financing and diversify the bond market.

Incentivising investments is another crucial strategy. The government could introduce measures such as tax benefits or guarantees to make green bonds more attractive. Additionally, establishing investment mandates for institutional investors, including insurance companies and pension funds, could help mobilise capital for sustainable projects. Such incentives would create a more favourable investment climate for green bonds.

Lastly, diversifying bond structures is necessary to attract a broader range of investors. Issuing longer-tenure green bonds tailored to long-term investors, such as insurance companies, could significantly expand the investor base. For example, 30-year bonds are likely to appeal more to these investors than the current 5-10 year offerings. 

Hence, green bonds represent a vital instrument in India’s transition to a low-carbon economy, funding projects that mitigate climate change and conserve biodiversity. However, the recent failure of the RBI’s green bond auction highlights systemic challenges, from limited awareness and transparency to insufficient market incentives. Addressing these issues through structural reforms, enhanced transparency, and targeted incentives can unlock the full potential of green bonds.

India's inflation targeting framework, which was established through amendments to the RBI Act in 2016, established a statutory basis for managing inflation. This framework aimed for a target inflation rate of 4%, allowing a range of 2% to 6%, also known as flexible inflation targeting. As the policy approaches its ninth year of implementation, RBI’s inflation target and its approach to setting the repo rate will be up for review in March 2025.

Two distinct opinions have emerged ahead of this review: one from the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) and another from the RBI Governor, each bringing their own perspective on how best to approach inflation control in the future. The latest Economic Survey has intensified this debate by proposing that food prices be excluded from the inflation targeting framework. The rationale is that food inflation is more influenced by supply-side factors rather than demand, making short-term monetary measures less effective and potentially counterproductive.

Core inflation has up until now for the entire calendar year remained within the range of 3% - 3.7% and it is only food inflation that has taken the headline CPI above 6%. A 10.87% spike in food prices caused India’s retail inflation to reach a 14-month high of 6.2% in October, whereas core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) rose to 3.7%, much within the target range of RBI. The CEA, V. Anantha Nageswaran, has argued that the recent increase in retail inflation is primarily driven by a few specific items. He pointed out that excluding tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOPs), as well as gold and silver, from the CPI calculation would show a much lower inflation rate of 4.2% in the month of October. 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal have echoed the argument by proposing that interest rates should be more affordable with the latter believing that focusing on food inflation while considering rate cuts is flawed. The government is of the opinion that RBI should not focus solely on inflation, as changing interest rates can't control food prices. This view, highlighted in the Annual Economic Survey of July 2024, emphasised that the RBI should not be tasked with managing factors it cannot influence, such as supply shortages due to crop failures. The CEA concluded that India should return to the pre-inflation targeting method, popularly known as the multi-indicator approach, as using short-term monetary tools to address supply constraints could prove to be counterproductive. 

However, RBI Governer, Shaktikanta Das has made his stance unambiguously clear. He emphasised that food inflation accounts for around 46% of the headline inflation index. Time and again he has never failed to mention how food inflation heavily influences household inflation expectations, which are critical for the future trajectory of overall inflation in the economy. 

Even as core inflation has shown a downward trend, Governor Das noted that though short term fluctuations in food prices can be ignored, persistent food inflation could lead to second-round effects, such as higher wages, which would then spill over into core inflation. 

With almost 46% of the weightage comes from food inflation and food articles, choosing headline inflation as the nominal anchor for the national monetary policy and subsequently managing inflation expectations makes perfect economic sense. In developing countries like India, where a large portion of the population's total expenditure is spent on food, these costs are closely connected to wages and labor market expenses through a chain of effects. This, in turn, influences inflation expectations, which ultimately contribute to overall inflation. It is also important for authorities to recognise that the general public often views inflation primarily in terms of food prices and persistent high food inflation can undermine inflation expectations and economic stability.

With the next MPC meeting scheduled between 4-6 of this month, it would not be surprising to see the RBI choosing to maintain its status quo of not changing its interest rate from the current 6.5% with the release of October’s inflation data. Governor Das, in his note during the last MPC meeting pointed out that the Indian economy cannot risk ‘another bout of inflation’ and that more substantial evidence is needed in regard to the inflation rates settling around the 4% target. This would be the 11th consecutive monetary policy ,for 22 months, on a trot, that the repo rate has  been left unchanged. 

All eyes are on this meeting as it is expected to be Governor Das' final one before his present term ends on December 10, soon after the MPC meeting concludes. The newly formed committee, with three external members inducted in October, also adds an element of uncertainty. Additionally, the looming possibility of tariff hikes by the new Trump administration on imported goods, which could increase commodity prices globally, is expected to be a key agenda item. Market analysts predict that the earliest rate cuts may have to await the next MPC meeting in February 2025, with the RBI still maintaining a neutral policy stance. 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), calculated by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), tracks the average price change of essential goods and services in a consumer's basket. This basket represents an average consumer's spending patterns, with different weights assigned to various products. As of October 2024, the year-on-year inflation rate for the All-India CPI (Base 2012) was 6.21%, with rural and urban inflation rates at 6.68% and 5.62%, respectively. Food inflation was notably higher, reaching 10.69% in rural areas and 11.09% in urban areas.

However, the CPI often fails to capture the economic realities of lower-income households. It assigns weights of ~6 to vegetables and ~11 to pulses and cereals, reflecting an average-income consumer’s basket. For low-income groups, food expenses account for a significantly higher proportion of income. For example, the share of meal costs in total wages for casual workers rose sharply: by 12.9 percentage points for women (34.7% to 47.6%) and 8.8 points for men (22.6% to 31.4%). Among salaried workers, meal costs increased by 6 percentage points for women (from 16% to 22%) and 4.9 points for men (from 12.6% to 17.5%). These trends reveal the CPI’s limitations in accurately reflecting consumption patterns for all kinds of groups in an economy.

The rising cost of meals has profound implications. Recent data shows the price of a basic meal, or "thali", has increased by 52%, compared to just a 9-10% wage increase for casual and regular workers. This disparity may lead to a rise in malnutrition and multidimensional poverty. For instance, school mid-day meals are shrinking in both size and nutritional quality due to rising costs that outpace the support provided by the government to the schools.

Staple vegetables like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) have experienced drastic price increases of 247%, 51%, and 180%, respectively. These hikes are driven by short seasonal crop cycles, storage constraints, supply-demand imbalances, and regional production concentration, making supply chains highly vulnerable to weather events and logistical challenges.

On the supply side; 40% of food is lost before reaching consumers due to poor transportation and storage infrastructure, while 10% is wasted at the consumption stage. Promoting circularity in agriculture can help address these inefficiencies effectively. Strategies such as product-as-a-service models to optimise farm-level asset use, food recovery, recycling systems, innovations to extend food lifespan, and repurposing agricultural waste could transform the sector. These can help reduce the supply-demand gap and reduce the volatility of prices fostering a more sustainable and equitable agricultural system. Additionally, these measures could yield annual benefits of $61 billion by 2050. 

On the demand side; consumption and spending habits are dependent on the income level, so a progressive increment must be undertaken rather than a regressive approach. Hence, essential goods should not become inaccessible or treated as luxuries. Instead, a collective effort is required to ensure that necessities remain a fundamental right for everyone.

 Indian weddings are far more than just a celebration of love -they are  grand spectacles, cultural milestones, and, for many, powerful symbols of prestige. The bigger, the more lavish, the better. In India, weddings are not only personal milestones but also a reflection of one’s social status, with opulence and extravagance serving as visible markers of success. No stone is left unturned when it comes to expenses, whether it’s the glittering jewellery, the elaborate rituals, or the star-studded guest lists. For many families, spending on a wedding is not just a budget decision but a statement to the world about their place in society. As the wedding season draws near, it’s the perfect time to delve into the sustainability of Indian weddings - a multi-billion-dollar industry that continues to grow year after year.

The term “Big Fat Indian Wedding” has become synonymous with grandeur, and it’s easy to see why. Gone are the days when a simple ceremony would suffice; today, weddings have evolved into extravagant affairs that span several days, featuring multiple functions, lavish decorations, and elaborate feasts. The costs involved are astronomical, with a typical wedding in India today ranging from ₹10 lakh to ₹50 lakh, or even more. In major cities like Mumbai, Delhi, and Bengaluru, wedding costs can easily exceed ₹1 crore. According to the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), last year alone, 35 lakh weddings contributed a staggering ₹4.25 lakh crore to the economy.

India’s wedding industry has grown into one of the largest in the world, a recent Jefferies’ report estimates the industry’s worth at $130 billion (approximately ₹11 lakh crore), second only to food and groceries in terms of consumption. The average wedding bill in India now stands at ₹12 lakh -three times the average household earnings of ₹4 lakh -putting it far ahead of global wedding spending trends. To put this into perspective, the amount families often spend on weddings can sometimes surpass the cost of a child’s entire education, underscoring the immense cultural importance and financial value attached to these events. As the wedding season kicks off, an estimated 48 lakh weddings are expected to take place during this season, with Delhi alone accounting for around 10% of these celebrations. The festivities provide an opportunity for the retail sector to tap into business worth ₹5.9 lakh crore this season, making the Indian wedding industry a force to be reckoned with. 

Taking loans to invest in assets that can generate long-term value or be monetised over time is often considered a smart financial decision, and many personal finance experts may even encourage it. However, a marriage - though a significant and memorable occasion - is an expense, not an investment. While it’s a once-in-a-lifetime event for most, the desire to create an extravagant, picture-perfect wedding can put a severe strain on personal finances, sometimes for years. This financial burden can delay other life goals, such as buying a home, pursuing further education, or starting a family. According to the IndiaLends Wedding Spends Report 2.0, 26% of couples planning their weddings consider borrowing money to cover expenses, with 68% of those considering an amount in the range of ₹1 lakh to ₹5 lakh. This growing trend of wedding loans, while not new, has reached unprecedented levels. The desire to have a lavish celebration can lead to families taking on significant debt, often resulting in long-term financial repercussions.

No Indian wedding is complete without an elaborate food spread, and catering is often one of the largest expenses. Indian weddings are known for their multi-cuisine offerings, ranging from traditional Indian delicacies to international fare, all served in an extravagant fashion. Large-scale buffets, live cooking stations, dessert bars, and themed catering setups are common at high-end weddings, further driving up costs. The sheer number of guests -often running into the hundreds or even thousands -adds to the complexity and cost of the catering.

Given that food plays such a central role in the festivities, many families opt for the best in culinary experiences, hiring renowned chefs and catering companies to ensure a memorable gastronomic experience. The catering segment alone accounts for a substantial portion of the total wedding budget, often making up 15% to 20% of the overall expenses.

However, the scale of food served at weddings often leads to a concerning level of waste. A wedding with 500 guests typically generates between 500 to 700 kilos of food waste over just three days, enough to feed a small village. With hundreds of thousands of weddings happening during the season, this waste becomes astronomical. In a country where parts of the population still face hunger and food insecurity, the level of waste at these lavish events is both shocking and deeply troubling.

Furthermore, much of the waste generated is in the form of disposable plates, plastic cups, and PET bottles. These items often end up in landfills, with no proper segregation or recycling, exacerbating the environmental impact. One way to address this is by encouraging the culture of RSVPing for events. This simple practice allows organisers to better estimate the number of attendees and, consequently, better manage food requirements to avoid over preparation.

Indian weddings are a vibrant expression of cultural heritage and joy; however the associated wastefulness, particularly in terms of food, and the ill practice of taking loans for extravagant celebrations, call for urgent attention. The pressure to host lavish events often leads families into debt, with many borrowing large sums to maintain social status and meet societal expectations. This financial burden can have long-term consequences, putting families under significant stress. Moreover, the scale of these events, with lavish feasts, extensive guest lists, and an abundance of food, results in vast amounts of uneaten, discarded food. By embracing mindful consumption, better planning, and sustainable practices, these celebrations can be made more eco-friendly and socially responsible. With growing awareness and conscious efforts, there is hope that future weddings can retain their cultural richness without compromising the planet, or the people who need it most.

COP29 in Baku, often dubbed the "finance COP," has placed climate finance at the forefront of discussions, reflecting the urgent need to align global financial resources with climate action. A major theme of the conference is increasing financial support for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, particularly those in the Global South, where the impacts of climate change are already being felt most acutely. While there have been some important developments, the outcomes so far show a mix of progress and continuing challenges in bridging the financial gap required to address climate change globally.

A key goal for this year's conference is to finalise the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), an international fund that developing countries could draw on to implement their climate action plans. The amount of money dedicated to the NCQG is crucial because it will directly influence how effectively these countries can meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) -the targets set under the Paris Agreement. According to the UNFCCC, the cost of implementing these NDCs could reach between $5.8 - $5.9 trillion cumulatively by 2030. In the submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), there is a diversity of opinions regarding the quantum, quality and access of climate finance for developing countries. On quantum, necessary contributions from the developed nations amount to $1 trillion annually. India, in its submission to the UNFCCC, has emphasised the importance of climate finance as a crucial enabler of climate action under the Paris Agreement, calling for a single, unified goal that sets clear, measurable targets for both the amount and timing of financial contributions.

Keeping with the spirit of NCQG, Azerbaijan, as the host country for COP29, launched the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF), a new initiative to support climate action in developing nations. The CFAF is part of a broader action agenda to increase global ambition and facilitate concrete action. The fund aims to raise $1 billion from contributions made by fossil fuel-producing countries and companies, with Azerbaijan itself being one of  the founding contributors. The goal is to raise contributions from at least 10 countries.

Half of the fund’s capital is earmarked to finance climate-related projects in developing countries, focusing on mitigation, adaptation, research, and development, as well as promoting the adoption of cleaner energy technologies, improving energy efficiency, and building climate resilience in vulnerable populations. The other half of the funds will help developing countries meet their next-generation NDCs, keeping the global 1.5°C target within reach. Additionally, 20% of the fund's returns will be allocated to a Rapid Response Funding Facility (2R2F) to provide immediate, concessional grants to help vulnerable countries, particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs), cope with the impacts of natural disasters.

The conference also highlighted the plight of SIDS and LDCs, with the adoption of the Baku Declaration on Amplifying SIDS’ Voice, which calls for amplifying the voices of these nations and emphasising their unique vulnerabilities to climate change. The declaration stresses the disproportionate impacts of climate change on these countries and urges urgent action to address these injustices. COP29 President Babayev praised the leadership shown by SIDS in the face of climate challenges and called on other nations to follow their example, reinforcing the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities".

In addition to public sector commitments, leaders from the business, finance, and philanthropic sectors also made major announcements at the COP29 Business, Investment, and Philanthropy Climate Platform (BIPCP).  The Asian Development Bank (ADB), for instance, pledged $3.5 billion to promote sustainable water use and food security, particularly in regions like Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Pakistan, where glaciers are rapidly melting. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s banking sector committed $1.2 billion for the development of green and sustainable projects in the country by 2030. Sweden also made a significant contribution, committing $730 million to the  Green Climate Fund (GCF) to help low- and middle-income countries address the impacts of climate change.

However, as COP29 crosses its halfway mark, it remains unclear whether an agreement on the NCQG will be reached. The discussions around how the fund will be operationalised are critical, as the NCQG is set to replace the current funding framework next year. India has taken a strong stance, calling out developed countries for pressuring developing nations to ramp up their mitigation efforts while failing to make sufficient progress themselves. Environmentalists have also expressed concerns about the CFAF, which remains voluntary and does not mandate high-emission countries to contribute proportionally. Azerbaijan has yet to specify the size of its own contribution to the fund, and critics worry that such funds could inadvertently grant fossil fuel companies the social licence to continue their operations while inadvertently hindering the global transition to net-zero emissions.

As COP29 unfolds, it’s clear that climate finance is not just a technical or financial issue, but a matter of global equity and urgency. While commitments to support SIDS and LDCs have been made, the real test lies in whether these funds will be sufficient and effectively distributed to meet the scale of the crisis. Building upon the lessons learned from the unmet $100 billion target, developed nations must adopt a proactive stance towards fulfilling their climate finance commitments. The negotiations around NCQG are crucial, as they will set the financial framework for the next decade. However, the absence of binding obligations for high-emission countries to contribute their fair share raises serious concerns about the sincerity of these commitments.

Eight years after India’s 2016 demonetisation shock, the journey has been anything but straightforward. On November 8, 2016, the government declared the Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes void, shaking up the economy with promises to curb black money, reduce counterfeit currency, and foster a “less-cash” economy. What ensued were cash shortages, long queues at ATMs, and a whirlwind of public reactions. Today, India finds itself in a dual reality: an embrace of digital payments and an enduring relationship with cash.

Demonetisation catalysed an unprecedented boom in digital payments. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) went from a fledgling system to a payment juggernaut, with billions of transactions processed each month. UPI and other digital wallets became household names, and today, QR codes are as common at street vendors as they are at luxury stores. While India’s cities were quick to adapt to digital payments, rural areas have been slower to follow. Cash is still deeply embedded in many people’s lives, especially in small towns and villages where digital literacy and internet access remain limited.

Despite the government’s push to decrease cash dependency, currency in circulation today is higher than it was before demonetisation. As of 2024, cash remains a vital part of India’s economy. For rural communities and older generations, physical currency is still trusted more than digital transactions. This dual system has led to what one might call a “cash-light” rather than a “cashless” society, where people use digital payments for convenience but continue to rely on cash for day-to-day transactions. In fact, cash’s popularity in rural India highlights the resilience of a system that remains adaptive but holds onto tradition.

One of demonetisation’s loftiest goals was to eradicate black money and draw unaccounted wealth into the formal economy. However, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reported that about 99% of the demonetised notes made their way back to the banking system. For critics, this indicated that the black money, demonetisation aimed to catch, largely escaped, either by being laundered quickly or by shifting to alternative assets. The anticipated “cleansing” of illicit funds thus did not fully materialise. Still, demonetisation did contribute to a gradual increase in tax compliance as more individuals and businesses were brought into the banking net, spurring a shift towards formalisation.

Formalisation has meant a larger tax base, and in the years following demonetisation, tax filings have risen significantly. For the government, this increase reflects progress in transparency and accountability within the economy. Although demonetisation may not have directly unearthed vast stores of black money, it has spurred structural changes, including better tracking of income and assets. Real estate, traditionally a cash-heavy sector, has also seen more formal transactions, with stricter documentation requirements. This shift represents a long-term gain in terms of regulatory oversight, though it falls short of the initial ambitions for immediate change.

For small businesses and the MSME sector, demonetisation was an intense shock that exposed them to the volatility of rapid policy shifts. MSMEs, which rely heavily on cash transactions and often operate with thin margins, faced immediate disruptions, resulting in job losses, slowed production, and cash flow issues. The following year’s rollout of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) brought additional challenges. Together, these policies forced MSMEs to adopt digital systems and adapt to formalisation efforts, though not without friction. While some MSMEs have since thrived, the transition was painful for many, and the impact of demonetisation lingers as a reminder of the sector’s vulnerability.

In retrospect, demonetisation was a catalyst for modernisation in ways few could have anticipated. The policy nudged the public toward a digital-first mindset, and today, even a roadside tea vendor can process payments via QR code. Digital payments aren’t just for shopping—they’re reshaping social dynamics, consumer behaviour, and even how businesses operate. Yet, India’s “digital revolution” remains uneven. While smartphone usage and internet penetration have increased, a digital divide persists, particularly in rural regions where infrastructure and digital literacy lag behind urban counterparts. Demonetisation may have pushed the country into the digital era, but true inclusion requires a more comprehensive approach.

The broader economic impact of demonetisation remains a subject of debate. GDP growth slowed post-demonetisation, dipping from 8.3% in 2016 to 6.8% in 2017, which some attribute to the disruption caused by demonetisation. Economists argue over the extent to which demonetisation directly impacted growth or merely accelerated trends that were already unfolding. The truth likely lies somewhere in between: demonetisation caused a temporary economic contraction, especially in cash-dependent sectors, but it also helped set the stage for a more formalised economy. India’s recovery, and its quick adaptation to digital payments, speaks of  its economic resilience.

As we reflect on demonetisation’s eighth anniversary, it is clear that the policy has left a mixed legacy. For every success story of a small business embracing digital payments, there’s a tale of those who struggled to adjust to the abrupt loss of cash. While the policy’s initial objectives around black money and counterfeit currency may not have been fully met, demonetisation undoubtedly reshaped India’s financial ecosystem. It has sparked a digital payments boom, increased tax compliance, and fostered a slow but steady movement toward formalisation.

Today’s India is a nation where the modern and traditional coexist in unique harmony. The ubiquity of digital payments is a testament to the country’s adaptability, yet cash remains king in many parts, revealing an economic duality that defies easy categorisation. Demonetisation may have aimed to change how India transacts, but it ended up sparking a cultural shift in how Indians think about money itself. Eight years on, demonetisation is less about currency and more about identity—about how a diverse, adaptive country can navigate change, one transaction at a time.

Trump is in the Oval Office again, and the global economy bracing itself for round two. If you felt the impact of his first term, buckle up. Trump has his playbook ready, filled with trade tariffs, deregulation, and a preference for “winning” big deals—even if it means shaking things up (again). Here is what might be on the table and how it could play out for global markets, businesses, and just maybe your favourite imports.

The “America First” agenda was Trump’s defining move, making trade partners wary while boosting some local industries. In round one, tariffs and sanctions became Trump’s go-to tools, like a chef who only uses salt and pepper but really, really loves pepper. Take China, for example. Tariffs on Chinese goods spurred U.S. companies to rethink where they source parts and products, but they also led to higher prices in the short run. Now, imagine if Trump re-escalates the U.S.-China standoff, armed with a fresh mandate and a penchant for a trade rumble.

But why stop at China? Trump has expressed his interest in tweaking trade relationships worldwide. He may want to renegotiate deals with the European Union and Mexico, potentially to create more “wins” for American industries. This could spark trade disputes, price hikes, and supply chain shifts, making things interesting for anyone who enjoys, say, German cars or Mexican avocados. 

Experts have already warned that Trump’s protectionist policies—designed to bolster domestic production—could be the kind of blow that global trade doesn’t recover from quickly. The IMF, that ever-optimistic body, is predicting that Trump’s second term could knock global GDP by 0.5% by 2026.

Now, before you go thinking it is all doom and gloom, ther is a silver lining—particularly for countries like India. Trump’s hardline approach to China could be just the opening India needs to step in and steal a little of that U.S.-China business. As Trump puts up tariff walls against Chinese imports, U.S. businesses might start eyeing India as the next great manufacturing hub. Let’s face it: India’s young, tech-savvy workforce and lower labour costs make it an attractive alternative for companies seeking to reduce their dependence on China. So while Trump slaps tariffs on Chinese-made gadgets, India could be busy filling the gap.

But hold up, before India starts celebrating its new role as America’s best friend, there’s a catch. If Trump’s tariffs bite deep, India’s key exports to the U.S., like textiles, IT services, and pharmaceuticals, could get tangled in his tariff web. So, while some Indian sectors might get a leg up in the global race, others could face higher costs if the U.S. decides to impose restrictions on them. And if you thought it couldn’t get worse, Trump’s anti-immigration stance might make it harder for Indian professionals to get those oh-so-coveted H1-B visas. You know, the ones that keep India’s IT sector humming along in Silicon Valley? Yeah, those might get more elusive under Trump 2.0.

Moreover, Trump has hinted he might push for policies that could shift currency values. A weaker dollar would make American products cheaper abroad, which sounds good in theory. But in reality, it could cause a little turmoil in foreign exchange markets, as countries with dollar-denominated debt struggle to keep up with higher repayment costs. As for India, the weaker dollar could mean a boost for its exports—so long as the rupee doesn’t shoot up in retaliation. But, as always with currency, things could get messy. One day you’re benefiting from a cheaper dollar, and the next day, you’re on the wrong side of the exchange rate battle.

On the topic of energy, Trump’s approach is pretty clear - he is a fan of fossil fuels. Forget about the Paris Agreement or emissions targets; Trump’s focus tends to be on drilling, mining, and maximising America’s energy independence. In fact, a second term might supercharge the oil and gas industry in the U.S., making life interesting for both energy markets and climate activists worldwide. Green energy advocates might groan, but U.S. oil producers could benefit, potentially lowering energy prices domestically while raising eyebrows globally.

Now let us talk about regulations—or rather, the absence of them. Trump’s deregulation spree during his first term was a win for businesses that wanted fewer rules and red tape. Financial markets saw this as a green light for growth, but it also left room for controversy around environmental and worker protections. On the one hand, U.S. businesses might benefit from fewer restrictions, leading to higher profits and lower costs. On the other hand, global markets that have grown accustomed to U.S. rules and norms could face a bit of a shock. Countries that have made strides in areas like climate change, worker rights, and environmental protections may find themselves at odds with a U.S. administration that’s all about “cutting red tape” and “draining the swamp” of regulations. So if a second term means more deregulation, Wall Street might cheer, but the EU and other economic partners could be on edge, especially with the focus on sustainable investments and ethical sourcing.

One word sums up what Trump’s potential return could mean for markets: volatility. Investors may remember the wild swings from the Trump years, when one tweet could send stocks soaring or tumbling. If we’re in for four more years of Trump-induced market drama, it’s likely investors will tread carefully, with eyes on policies that could affect trade, taxation, and corporate profits. Big corporations may adapt by investing more in U.S.-based operations to avoid trade issues, while smaller, export-reliant businesses might feel the squeeze.

Trump’s economic focus could also inspire other nations to pursue a more self-sufficient approach. If America dives back into a protectionist mindset, other countries might look inward as well. This could lead to a new era of regional trade agreements, where groups like the EU or ASEAN strengthen internal ties and even look for non-U.S. markets to balance out the effects of an American shift. Some experts suggest that Trump’s win could ultimately push the world economy toward a more fragmented, less U.S.-centric future.

As the world adjusts to climate challenges and unpredictable economic shifts, a second Trump term might introduce some unusual dynamics. If Trump sidesteps climate goals in favour of energy expansion, countries committed to emissions cuts might brace for a competitive, rather than cooperative, approach. Environmental goals could take a back seat, potentially setting back global progress on climate agreements.

Lastly, Trump’s return would bring fresh opportunities and risks, leaving global markets and governments guessing what’s next. From renegotiated trade deals to regulatory rollbacks and currency shifts, the world economy could face a familiar—but perhaps amplified—set of challenges. So, whether you’re an investor, a policy wonk, or just someone who enjoys an affordable cup of coffee, buckle up. The next four years could be a bumpy, thrilling ride, and we are all here to see what happens next.

At the behest of PM Modi, the Prime Minister of Jamaica, Dr. Andrew Holness, embarked on an official visit to India from 30 September to 3 October 2024. This landmark visit was not merely Dr. Holness’s first to India but also the first-ever bilateral visit of any Jamaican Prime Minister to Indian shores. 

While the two leaders have crossed paths on several occasions in multilateral settings, this visit offered a dedicated opportunity for deepening diplomatic rapport. The intriguing question is what India stands to gain from extending an invitation to the leader of a geographically distant Caribbean nation.

In the grand scheme of international relations, India’s invitation to PM Holness is far from a simple ceremonial gesture. Rather, it reflects a multifaceted approach driven by both historical commonalities and forward-looking strategic aspirations.

Foremost among these are the shared colonial experiences and democratic values that bind the two nations. Like India, Jamaica has liberated itself from British colonial rule, embracing a democratic ethos that has since defined its socio-political identity. Jamaica is, thus, home to a 70,000-strong Girmitiya population — descendants of Indian indentured labourers brought to the Caribbean in the 19th century under British rule. Every year on May 10, the Caribbean archipelago celebrates Indian Heritage Day, exhibiting the rich cultural ties that endure between the two nations and fortifying their bond through shared heritage and values. 

This common past fosters mutual understanding, empathy, and an affinity for democratic resilience; qualities essential to contemporary diplomacy.

Yet, PM Modi’s invitation signifies more than a nod to shared heritage; it displays a strategic extension of India’s soft power in the Caribbean, a region historically influenced by the United States. Recently, the Caribbean has also witnessed an increasing presence of Chinese investments, particularly in Jamaican infrastructure and tourism. Jamaica's GDP, estimated at US $19.42 billion in 2023, relies on key sectors like bauxite and aluminium production, but the country remains economically vulnerable due to international fluctuations. Despite the constraints of distance and Jamaica’s preferential trade agreements with other partners, India has fostered steady growth in bilateral trade with Jamaica, rising from US $28.28 million in 2011-12 to US $116.73 million in 2023-24.

According to recent data, Chinese investments in Jamaica have exceeded US $3 billion over the past decade, with bilateral trade surpassing US $800 million, which has expanded Chinese influence in the Caribbean. Through engagement with Jamaica, India aims to counterbalance China’s economic sway, establishing an Indo-Caribbean dynamic anchored in mutual respect and non-hegemonic partnership.

Moreover, while small in land area, the Caribbean region wields outsized influence in international forums, especially the United Nations. Jamaica, a key member of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), has championed equitable global policies, particularly around climate resilience—a field in which India is increasingly prominent. 

India’s International Solar Alliance (ISA) initiative, for instance, could find a valuable partner in Jamaica, which faces direct climate challenges such as hurricanes and rising sea levels. PM Holness also expressed Jamaica’s intent to join the Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA). Jamaica’s support for India’s climate initiatives would in turn bolster India’s position in multilateral environmental discussions, reinforcing India’s role as a global green leader.

Lastly, the two nations share a vibrant enthusiasm for cricket—a soft power tool in its own right. Cultural diplomacy can be a potent bridge, and cricket serves as a unifying platform that fosters closer people-to-people ties.

During PM Holness’s visit, several MoUs were signed, spanning fields such as cooperation in digital public infrastructure for financial inclusion, sports, and more. Thus, this invitation to PM Holness transcends formality; it is a strategic embrace of shared values, a counterbalance to regional geopolitical forces, and a nurturing of potential allies in the Global South, reflective of India’s inclusive and holistic vision for its foreign policy.

The untimely demise of Padma Shri awardee Shri Bibek Debroy at the age of 69 has left an irreplaceable void in India's intellectual and economic landscape. A polymath whose erudition spanned economics, Sanskrit, and Indian epics, Debroy was a quintessential public intellectual who blended scholarly rigour with an indomitable passion for India's developmental narrative.

As Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PM-EAC), Debroy's influence on shaping India's economic policies was unparalleled. His tenure was marked by his astute guidance during critical moments of India's economic journey, particularly in navigating global uncertainties, advocating structural reforms, and catalysing long-term growth strategies. His remarkable ability to distil complex economic ideas into actionable policies endeared him to policymakers and academicians alike. His pivotal role in crafting the voluminous recommendations of the Bibek Debroy Committee on restructuring Indian Railways stand testament to his visionary foresight. He was a tireless advocate for the liberalisation of labour laws, rationalisation of subsidies, and the creation of a more competitive market structure that could serve as the bedrock of India’s long-term growth. Under his stewardship, the PM-EAC produced insightful reports that stressed the need for fiscal prudence, inclusive growth, and fostering innovation.

Beyond the domain of economics, Debroy was a prolific translator and author, celebrated for his remarkable English translations of the Mahabharata and the Ramayana. His translations remain revered for their accessibility while maintaining the gravitas of the original texts. In an age where India's cultural and economic histories are often viewed in silos, Debroy embodied a rare synthesis - an intellectual bridge between the ancient and the modern, the spiritual and the material.

His vision of a self-reliant India was deeply anchored in both modern economic theories and India's civilisational ethos. Debroy's scholarship extended far beyond the limits of academic economics; he was equally comfortable dissecting economic growth as he was explaining the intricacies of Dharma and Karma. His work fostered a nuanced understanding of India’s economic potential, not merely as a function of GDP growth, but as a quest for holistic well-being.

As a mentor, Debroy inspired a generation of economists, writers, and thinkers. His demise is not only a monumental loss for India’s economic fraternity but also for its cultural and intellectual circles. His towering legacy, however, will endure through the countless lives he touched, the policies he helped shape, and the wisdom embedded in his writings. Bibek Debroy will be remembered not only as an economist but as a renaissance man who stood at the confluence of knowledge, tradition, and progress.

 Ratan Tata, a name synonymous with industrial leadership, will forever be etched in India’s annals of economic development. As the architect of Tata Group’s contemporary expansion, he spearheaded not just corporate transformation but also regional metamorphosis, most notably in Jamshedpur, or as it is fondly known, Tatanagar. His strategic foresight and leadership catalysed the transformation of this city into India’s first planned industrial town, positioning it as a beacon of Indian entrepreneurship.

Jamshedji Tata, the founder of the Tata Group, started the construction of Jamshedpur in 1908 which had been envisioned as the nucleus of India’s industrial prowess. But it was Ratan Tata who, through his modern approach and unparalleled stewardship, breathed new life into this vision. His ability to merge tradition with modernity is epitomised in the development of Jamshedpur as a symbol of India's industrial might, while maintaining social and environmental responsibility—a hallmark of the Tata ethos.

Under Ratan Tata’s aegis, Tata Steel—Jamshedpur’s bedrock industry—underwent a paradigm shift. The steel plant, which was initially seen as a cornerstone of India’s self-sufficiency, was revitalised under his leadership to meet global standards. By embracing state-of-the-art technologies and introducing sustainable practices, he ensured that Tata Steel not only survived economic turbulence but thrived. He was instrumental in expanding production capacity, modernising facilities, and introducing efficiency-driven reforms that propelled the company into the league of top global steel producers.

Jamshedpur, consequently, became the crucible for this industrial revolution. Ratan Tata’s vision extended beyond economic output—he sought to transform Jamshedpur into a model industrial township where infrastructure, healthcare, and educational facilities would cater to the needs of its citizens. His investments in Jamshedpur’s urban planning turned the city into a rare confluence of economic vitality and social well-being.

His contributions to Jamshedpur went far beyond mere corporate achievements. His ethical approach to business was firmly rooted in a commitment to social welfare. He institutionalised programmes that provided free healthcare and education to the families of Tata Steel workers, alongside schemes for skill development and livelihood generation such as the Tata STRIVE mission. This dual focus on economic and human capital created a self-sustaining ecosystem, where the prosperity of the company mirrored the well-being of the community.

Moreover, Ratan Tata’s relentless pursuit of sustainability in Jamshedpur was pioneering. Under his stewardship, Tata Steel became a leader in adopting environmentally conscious practices, from water conservation to renewable energy initiatives such as rooftop solar, microgrids, storage solutions, EV charging infrastructure, and home automation. Jamshedpur, in turn, earned accolades for its green cover and efficient waste management systems, showcasing that industrial growth need not come at the expense of environmental degradation.

Ratan Tata’s death marks the end of an era, but his legacy will forever live on in Jamshedpur. The city, much like the man, stands as a testament to resilience, vision, and compassion. Through his tireless efforts, Ratan Tata demonstrated that industrial success could harmonise with social progress. In his development of Jamshedpur, he offered India not just an industrial town but a model for sustainable, inclusive growth.

In a country where industrial leadership often remained synonymous with mere profit maximisation, Ratan Tata set an example of a business leader who understood the symbiotic relationship between industry and society. His legacy in Jamshedpur serves as a beacon of this enlightened vision, ensuring that future generations will continue to benefit from his life’s work.

In the words of Tata himself: “I don’t believe in taking right decisions, I take decisions and then make them right.” Jamshedpur, his enduring monument, stands as irrefutable proof of the indomitable spirit that Ratan Tata embodied throughout his illustrious career.

“Cleanliness is next to Godliness”. This timeless proverb embodies the essence of the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), launched on 2nd October 2014, echoing both spiritual and practical imperatives of cleanliness. Mahatma Gandhi, a staunch advocate of sanitation, once remarked, “Sanitation is more important than independence,” aligning the nation’s struggle for freedom with its duty to ensure cleanliness for all. The Swachh Bharat Mission, inspired by this belief, has not only become a testament to India's commitment to hygiene but also a transformative movement that touches the lives of millions. It stands as a reminder that true progress begins with clean surroundings, creating a foundation for a healthier, more dignified society.

With the Mission completing a decade since its launch, India stands at a critical juncture in its quest for nationwide cleanliness and sanitation. Initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this ambitious programme sought to eliminate open defecation and ensure universal access to sanitation facilities, particularly for the rural population. A key milestone was achieved in 2019 when the government declared India “Open Defecation Free” (ODF), a landmark event that emphasised the country's commitment to Mahatma Gandhi’s vision of sanitation. 

SBM was split into two distinct initiatives: Swachh Bharat Mission-Gramin (SBM-G), focused on rural India, and Swachh Bharat Mission-Urban (SBM-U), tailored to urban areas. Over the past decade, the mission has delivered significant results, dramatically increasing sanitation coverage across the country. As of 2024, 100% of rural households have access to individual household latrines (IHHL), a figure that stands in stark contrast to the pre-SBM era, where less than 39% of rural India had access to sanitation facilities.

The SBM-G programme has emphasised not just the construction of toilets but also behavioural change. The cornerstone of the initiative is the concept of ODF Plus, which goes beyond mere access to toilets and focuses on sustaining these achievements through improved water and waste management systems. Over 5.5 lakh villages have now been declared ODF Plus, a monumental feat in rural sanitation.

Urban sanitation, under SBM-U, has seen comparable success. The programme has focused on solid waste management, with urban local bodies (ULBs) achieving 100% door-to-door collection of waste in over 95% of Indian cities. Furthermore, 78% of urban waste is now processed, reflecting a concerted effort toward scientific waste management. With over 6.3 million public and community toilets constructed and the development of smart cities, SBM-U has provided an infrastructural backbone to India’s growing urban landscape.

However, despite these extraordinary achievements, challenges remain. Water scarcity continues to pose a threat to maintaining sanitation facilities in certain rural areas. The continued prevalence of open defecation in a small percentage of the population, particularly in marginalised and economically backward regions, underscores the need for sustained intervention. Furthermore, while waste management systems have expanded, the processing and recycling of plastic waste remain areas for future focus.

Looking ahead, the Swachh Bharat Mission is poised to enter its next phase, focusing on sustainability. The Swachh Bharat Mission 2.0 seeks to consolidate gains by embedding hygiene practices as a permanent facet of Indian society, advancing toward the goal of ODF++, which envisions effective solid and liquid waste management at the village and ward level.

As India celebrates 10 years of Swachh Bharat, the road ahead beckons continued innovation and participation. The Swachh Bharat Mission, in its enduring pursuit of cleanliness, has indeed laid the groundwork for a healthier and more dignified India, aligning with Mahatma Gandhi’s vision of a nation where sanitation and hygiene form the cornerstone of public life.

As India marks the tenth anniversary of the 'Make in India' initiative, it is only fitting to reflect upon the monumental achievements that have defined the nation’s journey towards becoming a global manufacturing hub. Launched on September 25, 2014, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this visionary program has catalysed India’s industrial renaissance, with the twin goals of fostering innovation and inviting investment while positioning the country as a leader in design, production, and infrastructure.

The ‘Make in India’ initiative was born at a time when the global economy sought new engines of growth. India, with its vast human resources, ever-growing technological capabilities, and entrepreneurial spirit, was ripe for such an economic transformation. This initiative provided a clarion call for both Indian and global investors to participate in the creation of a self-reliant India - a nation where “Vocal for Local” was not merely a slogan but a strategic roadmap for the future.

One of the most striking successes has been India’s ascent as the world’s second-largest mobile phone manufacturer. In a market dominated by international players, India’s emergence as a major production centre exemplifies the initiative’s focus on high-value industries and the integration of cutting-edge technology. This industrial shift has brought not only increased domestic capacity but also global recognition of India's prowess in manufacturing.

A linchpin in this transformation has been the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. As of March, 2024 this ambitious scheme has unlocked over ₹1.28 lakh crore in investments across key sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive; resulting in the generation of around 8 lakh jobs. The PLI scheme’s ripple effect can be observed in industries where India is becoming a global leader, from semiconductors to EVs. This has enabled a shift in the global supply chain dynamics, with India emerging as a viable alternative for companies seeking diversification beyond traditional manufacturing giants.

Perhaps most emblematic of the success of ‘Make in India’ is the nation’s beaming startup ecosystem. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) recognises over 1.48 lakh startups pan-India. This entrepreneurial surge has created over 1.5 million direct jobs, showcasing how the initiative has had a tangible and transformative impact on employment generation and skill development across the country.

In defence production, India has achieved record-breaking growth, with defence manufacturing hitting an astounding ₹1.27 lakh crore in the 2023-24 fiscal year, with a 2024-25 target of ₹1.6 lakh crore. The government’s efforts to foster self-reliance in defence capabilities have placed India on a global stage as an emerging powerhouse in the military-industrial complex, while simultaneously reducing dependence on foreign suppliers.

India’s role as a global health provider, producing 60% of the world’s vaccines, further solidifies its position as a critical player in global supply chains. This accomplishment, combined with India’s rank as fourth-largest renewable energy installed capacity globally, signifies how the ‘Make in India’ initiative has transcended manufacturing to touch upon critical sectors like healthcare and sustainability.

As could be surmised, India’s EXIM landscape too has witnessed a transformation, courtesy the initiative. To get a brief overview, read NEF’s latest blog title, “India’s  EXIM  Evolution: From Spices-Software, And Everything in b/w”.

It is evident that the initiative has become a cornerstone of India’s economic strategy, forging new paths for the nation's industrial and technological future. The program’s successes are not merely achievements of the present but also foundations upon which India’s future prosperity will be built.